Don't believe the hype

From de Online at Guardian Don't believe the hype

The best IT advice you will get this year is: don't buy on the hype, buy on the reality. The tricky bit is knowing which things are ripe for adoption, and which are being hyped beyond reason. This isn't a technology issue: it's about timing. Move too soon and you pay a high price and buy a lot of aggravation. Move too late and you suffer one or more years at a competitive disadvantage to rivals who are doing things faster and cheaper.

Gartner researchers looked at the adoption of a range of technologies at the company's European ITxpo, held earlier this month in Cannes. Sad to say, I wasn't there, but the analysis wasn't limited to the sunny south of France.

Steve Prentice, Gartner's chief of research, provides a one-paragraph summary: "We are encouraging busi nesses to evaluate migrating their telecom services to IP VPN [virtual private networks], refresh their desktops, and outsource IT services offshore right now. IT managers should also be evaluating and preparing to adopt web services, PC virtualisation and wireless services in the next three years. However, there is a lot of hype surrounding "on demand" computing, 3G, 64-bit computing, grids and artificial intelligence, which we believe enterprises should hold off until at least 2008," he says.

Gartner analysts think you should be adopting flat panel displays for desktop PCs, and sounded a warning about Wi-Fi wireless networks, to the effect that if you don't deploy them, your users will. But based on Gartner's independent research, GNU/Linux isn't ready for general desktop use.

Brian Gammage, from Gartner's client platforms team, says: "Linux on the desktop has been one of this year's most topical subjects, but the discussion is over-hyped. Most of the attention has centered on a few state-sector contracts where local authorities were looking to avoid paying Microsoft's licensing fees. The real volume of contracts signed has been low. Moreover, we believe some Linux decisions were poorly made and will have higher costs later on. Linux does have a place on the desktop, especially for structured task workers operating in closed domains. How much market share Linux takes depends on whether Microsoft lowers prices."

Prentice mentioned a number of technologies where Gartner reckons companies should "ignore the excessive hype". To those you can add the latest Internet Protocol IPv6 ("strictly for network operators") and RFID [radio frequency identification] chips outside of retail applications.

On over-hyped "grid computing," Gartner's Andy Butler says: "Vendors are motivated to sell products and services related to grids in order to participate in the high levels of funding available. This 'feeding frenzy' has caught the attention and imagination of the wider commercial markets, hoping to garner growth if grid catches on for more general needs outside of big science and defence projects. But it is currently difficult to find agreement on what constitutes grid, particularly when evaluating the marketing uses of vendors and the more long-range, visionary pronouncements of advocates."

IT vendors love to sell visionary products where you don't quite know what they are, you aren't sure what they do, and you have no idea what they will cost. You don't have to buy them. Yet.